Market & Industry

Cartier Leads Watch Value Gains, Outpacing Rolex in Post-Pandemic Market

Close-up of a vintage Cartier Tank watch on a wrist. - nationaljeweler.com

Affordable Classics Drive Value Appreciation, Study Finds

In a significant shift in the luxury watch market, data analysis by Chrono24, the leading online marketplace for pre-owned timepieces, indicates that accessible classic watch models have outperformed high-value icons in terms of value appreciation since 2018. The study, which examined several thousand watch models across eight-year and four-year periods, reveals that brands like Cartier have experienced triple-digit gains, while even top Rolex models show more modest increases.

Cartier Takes Top Honors, Rolex Trails Behind

The Cartier Tank Vermeil (Ref. 1613) emerged as the top performer, boasting an impressive 299 percent increase in value since 2018. Notably, this model was available for a three-figure sum in 2018, challenging the notion that significant investment is required for a watch to appreciate over time. Other Cartier models, including the Panthère in yellow gold (Ref. 1070) and its two-tone version (Ref. 1057917), also demonstrated strong growth, with increases of 218 percent and 208 percent, respectively.

In contrast, Rolex, despite its market dominance and high demand, did not feature any models in the top 20 for value gains. The Rolex Datejust 41 (Ref. 126334), a best-seller on Chrono24, saw a 59 percent increase since 2018. According to Chrono24, Rolex models were already highly valued in 2018 and experienced substantial speculative demand during the pandemic. Following the boom, prices stabilized or saw slight declines, leaving limited room for such significant returns.

Pandemic Market Correction: A Stress Test for Timepieces

Chrono24's analysis used the period between 2020 and 2022, often referred to as the pandemic-era bubble, as a critical stress test for the market. During this time, prices for many sought-after watch models surged, driven by speculators treating watches as short-term financial assets. The subsequent market correction disproportionately affected these highly hyped models.

For instance, the Patek Philippe Nautilus (Ref. 5712/1A) has seen a decrease of around 45 percent from its 2022 peak, though it still trades at nearly three times its 2018 value. Similarly, the Vacheron Constantin Overseas (Ref. 4500V) relinquished more than half of its peak value. The Hublot Big Bang (Ref. 301.SB.131.RX) did not benefit from the boom and has declined 20 percent since 2022.

The 16 watch models that more than doubled in value over the analyzed periods share a common characteristic: their growth was fueled by organically increasing demand from genuine collectors, rather than speculative purchasing. These models have demonstrated resilience, withstanding market corrections and maintaining their value.

Broader Market Shows Signs of Recovery

Beyond specific model performance, Chrono24's luxury watch market index, ChronoPulse, indicates a positive trend across the overall market. The index has shown a 2.5 percent gain on a one-year basis, with accelerating momentum in the latter half of the period. Over the past six months, the market has risen by 5.2 percent, with further short-term gains of 3 percent over three months and 1 percent in the past month.

This sustained growth suggests a resurgence in broad buyer demand. Balazs Ferenczi, Head of Brand Engagement at Chrono24, commented, “This analysis dispels a widespread misconception: You don't need a five-figure investment in a Nautilus or Royal Oak to buy a watch that appreciates over time. Some of the best performers of the past eight years could be had in 2018 for a fraction of the cost. What these models have in common is not their price but their substance: iconic design that endures for decades and demand that is not dependent on waiting lists but on genuine collector value.”

Key Findings at a Glance: